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KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
83%
WN2
81%
HRES
42%
ICON
20%
EPS
13%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u
VS
EPSNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.00u · EPS −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00IFS HRES: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 07:5110-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:0076.2%13.2%74.3%41.5%13.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0076.2%13.2%81.4%41.5%13.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0076.2%13.2%81.4%41.5%13.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0076.2%13.2%81.4%41.5%13.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0082.8%13.2%81.4%41.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0082.8%13.2%81.4%41.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:0082.8%13.2%81.4%41.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0082.8%13.2%81.4%41.5%19.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single83%70.4°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%70.1°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
NWS forecast59%68.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES42%66.7°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend41%67.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON20%64.5°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble13%64.1°F3.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗