KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

81%

42%

20%

13%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

EPSNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.00u · EPS −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	22.5%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	20.7%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	1.6%	40.6%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	33.6%	25.7%	1.6%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	44.9%	21.5%	10.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	47.7%	22.8%	3.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	40.5%	26.1%	17.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	0.9%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	45.8%	25.1%	12.9%	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	20.8%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	47.4%	21.4%	22.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	42.9%	15.5%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	42.7%	20.3%	23.0%	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	28.4%	17.7%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	29.6%	18.3%	15.3%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	22.6%	21.1%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	21.9%	9.4%	0.0%	22.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	20.5%	21.3%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	29.2%	22.1%	8.5%	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	26.7%	18.3%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	19.9%	20.7%	4.8%	0.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	25.3%	19.9%	7.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	33.1%	23.6%	11.8%	14.4%	21.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	28.0%	19.1%	12.8%	—	19.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	18.2%	18.2%	11.3%	15.7%	21.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	28.8%	21.1%	15.6%	—	25.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	38.6%	22.2%	17.2%	24.5%	29.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	19.2%	8.6%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	70.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	64.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	64.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗