KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

63%

34%

32%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

EPSNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.20u · EPS −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	89.4%	41.3%	90.9%	65.3%	32.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	89.4%	31.4%	92.9%	65.3%	32.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	89.4%	31.4%	92.9%	65.3%	32.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	89.4%	31.4%	92.9%	65.3%	32.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	86.9%	31.4%	92.9%	65.3%	32.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	86.9%	31.4%	92.7%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00	86.9%	32.0%	92.7%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	86.9%	32.0%	92.7%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	86.9%	32.0%	92.7%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	86.9%	32.0%	89.9%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	86.9%	32.0%	89.9%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	86.9%	32.0%	89.9%	65.3%	33.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	89.9%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	89.9%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	89.9%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	89.9%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	89.9%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	89.9%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	82.6%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	76.7%	32.0%	82.6%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	83.6%	32.0%	82.6%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	83.6%	32.0%	82.6%	33.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	83.6%	32.0%	82.6%	33.5%	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	71.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	63%	69.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	63.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 67°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗