KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

63%

34%

32%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

EPSNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.20u · EPS −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	6.6%	44.6%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	40.9%	40.3%	3.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	37.8%	20.4%	17.9%	—	37.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	50.8%	23.4%	39.4%	—	44.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	53.2%	23.6%	38.2%	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	3.8%	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	29.3%	19.5%	36.1%	—	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	16.7%	17.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	24.1%	18.4%	22.8%	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	23.5%	16.1%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	23.0%	14.9%	10.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	21.0%	14.3%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	24.0%	14.2%	4.9%	—	17.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	26.5%	19.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	18.3%	13.9%	1.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	22.8%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	35.1%	23.8%	3.5%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	29.6%	22.3%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	19.9%	18.3%	2.5%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	34.7%	27.3%	3.5%	—	16.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	47.5%	20.8%	5.5%	10.6%	16.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	15.8%	3.7%	—	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	71.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	63%	69.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	63.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 67°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗