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KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
93%
ICON
76%
HRES
62%
EPS
55%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u
VS
EPSNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.50u · EPS −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:0094.5%63.1%95.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:0094.5%51.2%95.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:0094.5%51.2%95.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:0095.2%51.2%95.1%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:0095.2%51.2%95.1%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:0095.2%54.5%95.1%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:0095.2%54.5%95.1%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:0095.2%54.5%96.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:0095.2%54.5%96.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:0095.2%54.5%96.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:0095.2%54.5%96.3%52.5%31.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:0092.0%54.5%96.3%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:0092.0%54.5%96.3%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:0092.0%54.5%96.3%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:0092.0%54.5%96.3%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:0092.0%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:0091.9%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:0091.9%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:0092.7%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:0092.7%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:0092.7%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0092.7%54.5%94.5%62.2%76.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%72.6°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single93%72.8°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON76%71.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES62%66.5°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%64.9°F3.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend55%65.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗