KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

76%

62%

55%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

EPSNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.50u · EPS −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	15.7%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	73.8%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	5.4%	36.7%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	67.0%	47.2%	3.9%	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	37.1%	37.1%	59.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	38.7%	32.3%	46.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	32.3%	33.0%	29.5%	—	46.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	1.5%	35.6%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	25.1%	30.0%	16.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	17.3%	36.6%	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	33.8%	31.4%	12.7%	—	34.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	34.2%	36.8%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	21.6%	35.6%	6.1%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	26.9%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	38.5%	37.6%	10.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	32.6%	29.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	27.6%	34.9%	10.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	37.5%	33.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	51.1%	34.1%	19.8%	33.1%	33.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	30.5%	0.0%	—	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	72.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	72.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	71.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	66.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗