KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

49%

28%

26%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

EPSNO 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.80u · EPS −63.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:26+00:00	54.0%	9.1%	78.9%	33.9%	33.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	54.0%	9.1%	78.9%	33.9%	33.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	54.0%	9.1%	71.2%	33.9%	33.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	54.0%	9.1%	71.2%	33.9%	33.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	54.0%	9.1%	71.2%	33.9%	33.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	54.0%	9.1%	71.2%	33.9%	33.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	71.2%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	71.2%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	71.2%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	71.2%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	49.2%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	49.2%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	49.2%	9.1%	63.3%	25.6%	28.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	68.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	64.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	63.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗