KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

49%

28%

26%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

EPSNO 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.80u · EPS −63.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	55.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	1.7%	19.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	46.5%	27.5%	1.1%	—	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	18.9%	18.9%	37.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	19.5%	15.1%	25.1%	—	35.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	14.5%	14.9%	12.7%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.3%	16.3%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	9.7%	12.5%	5.6%	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	5.6%	16.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	14.1%	12.7%	3.6%	—	14.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	7.0%	14.4%	1.2%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	9.2%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	15.3%	14.7%	2.4%	—	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	11.4%	9.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	8.6%	12.3%	2.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	13.2%	11.1%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	21.3%	10.9%	4.7%	10.4%	10.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	8.7%	0.0%	—	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	68.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	64.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	63.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗