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KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
AIFS
74%
ICON
58%
EPS
55%
HRES
51%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 70.2¢Risks 70.20u
VS
HRESNO 29.8¢Risks 29.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.80u · HRES −29.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:0010-16 13:2810-16 21:0710-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:0087.3%52.6%94.9%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:0087.1%52.6%94.8%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:0087.1%55.0%94.8%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:0087.1%55.0%94.8%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:0087.1%55.0%94.8%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:0087.1%55.0%92.4%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:0087.1%55.0%92.4%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:0087.1%55.0%92.4%56.2%31.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:0076.7%55.0%92.4%56.2%58.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:0076.7%55.0%92.4%56.2%58.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:0076.7%55.0%92.4%56.2%58.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:0076.7%55.0%92.4%56.2%58.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:0076.7%55.0%92.4%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:0076.7%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:0076.7%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:0076.7%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:0074.0%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:0074.0%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:0074.0%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:0074.0%55.0%89.2%51.2%58.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%70.8°F5.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single74%68.2°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON58%66.5°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%64.9°F3.2°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend54%65.0°F5.5°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES51%64.7°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗