KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

74%

58%

55%

51%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.2¢Risks 70.20u

HRESNO 29.8¢Risks 29.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.80u · HRES −29.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	5.4%	40.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	32.3%	63.8%	7.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	24.9%	40.6%	24.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	9.7%	46.9%	13.4%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	46.9%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	33.7%	46.8%	12.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	0.8%	12.6%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	25.8%	48.3%	14.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	8.5%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	8.3%	38.8%	3.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	5.7%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	3.2%	35.6%	5.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	9.2%	36.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	6.5%	29.6%	9.8%	19.0%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	24.9%	—	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	70.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	68.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	58%	66.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	64.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	64.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗