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KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
91%
ICON
83%
EPS
63%
HRES
55%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.35u
VS
HRESNO 22.6¢Risks 22.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.65u · HRES −22.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:0092.3%61.4%98.4%65.9%79.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:0092.3%61.4%98.8%65.9%79.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0092.3%61.4%98.8%65.9%79.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0092.3%61.4%98.8%65.9%79.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:0096.7%61.4%98.8%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0096.7%61.4%98.8%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0096.7%61.4%98.8%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0096.7%61.4%98.8%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0096.7%61.4%98.8%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:0096.7%63.1%99.9%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:0096.7%63.1%99.9%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0096.7%63.1%99.9%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:0090.9%63.1%99.9%54.8%83.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0090.9%63.1%99.9%54.8%83.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%71.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single91%65.1°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend86%62.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON83%64.4°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%59.9°F4.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES55%59.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%59.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗