KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

91%

83%

63%

55%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.35u

HRESNO 22.6¢Risks 22.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.65u · HRES −22.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	68.2%	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	7.2%	77.7%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	20.4%	86.7%	9.3%	—	59.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	69.0%	83.5%	64.3%	—	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	65.6%	87.5%	84.0%	—	64.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	73.9%	78.8%	61.0%	—	57.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	1.5%	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	64.7%	82.7%	67.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	74.0%	85.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	90.6%	87.8%	69.3%	79.8%	70.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	86.5%	—	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	65.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	83%	64.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	59.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	59.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗