KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

83%

61%

38%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

EPSNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.70u · EPS −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	2.5%	60.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	8.7%	72.0%	3.2%	—	38.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	47.8%	66.3%	42.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	43.2%	71.7%	66.3%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	51.6%	57.9%	37.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	0.3%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	40.1%	62.3%	43.4%	—	26.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	50.0%	65.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	74.5%	69.3%	43.9%	57.0%	44.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	66.6%	—	—	42.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	69.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	67.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	66.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	62.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	60.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗