KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

69%

55%

36%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

EPSNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.50u · EPS −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:41+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	63.8%	43.8%	30.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	74.1%	43.8%	30.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	74.1%	43.8%	30.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	74.1%	43.8%	30.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	74.1%	43.8%	30.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	69.1%	33.1%	74.1%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	69.1%	33.1%	74.1%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	69.1%	33.1%	74.1%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	69.1%	33.1%	74.1%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	69.1%	13.5%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	69.1%	13.5%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	69.1%	13.5%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	69.1%	13.5%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	66.5%	13.8%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:34+00:00	66.5%	13.8%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	66.5%	15.2%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	66.5%	15.2%	77.3%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	66.5%	15.2%	78.6%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	66.5%	15.2%	78.6%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	66.5%	15.2%	78.6%	21.5%	57.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	78.6%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	78.6%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	78.6%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	78.6%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	78.6%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	67.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	69.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	69.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	69.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	69.1%	15.2%	85.8%	36.4%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	66.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	64.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	59.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗