KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

69%

55%

36%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

EPSNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.50u · EPS −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	36.6%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	1.1%	46.6%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	4.4%	59.1%	1.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	33.7%	52.2%	29.1%	—	21.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	28.9%	57.6%	51.5%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	35.9%	42.1%	23.6%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	0.1%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	25.1%	45.8%	27.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	33.4%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	58.7%	52.6%	27.7%	39.6%	28.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	49.1%	—	—	26.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	66.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	64.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	59.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗