KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

38%

27%

24%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

EPSNO 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.35u · EPS −56.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	75.1%	51.9%	91.3%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	75.1%	51.9%	91.3%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	75.1%	51.9%	91.3%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	75.1%	51.9%	91.3%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	75.1%	51.9%	91.3%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	75.1%	26.4%	88.8%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	75.1%	26.4%	88.8%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	75.1%	26.4%	88.8%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	56.9%	26.4%	88.8%	29.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	56.9%	26.4%	88.7%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:27+00:00	56.9%	24.4%	88.7%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	56.9%	24.4%	88.7%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	56.9%	24.4%	74.1%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	56.9%	24.4%	74.1%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	56.9%	24.4%	74.1%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	56.9%	24.4%	74.1%	29.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	74.1%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	74.1%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	74.1%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	74.1%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	43.8%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	62.9%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	62.9%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	62.9%	24.4%	56.2%	37.8%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	66.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	65.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	62.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	58.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	61.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗