KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

38%

27%

24%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

EPSNO 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.35u · EPS −56.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	0.7%	40.0%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	3.0%	52.1%	0.9%	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	27.2%	44.9%	23.2%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	22.8%	50.0%	43.9%	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	28.8%	34.5%	17.9%	—	15.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	0.0%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	18.9%	37.7%	21.3%	—	10.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	26.0%	40.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	50.0%	43.9%	20.8%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	40.2%	—	—	19.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	66.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	65.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	62.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	58.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	61.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗