KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

13%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

EPSNO 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.10u · EPS −45.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	45.6%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	45.6%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	45.6%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	45.6%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	45.6%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	23.8%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	23.8%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	23.8%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:27+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	36.2%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	17.9%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	17.9%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	17.9%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	17.9%	3.9%	3.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	17.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	17.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	17.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	17.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	13.2%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	13.2%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	13.2%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	14.4%	0.3%	13.2%	6.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	12.2%	0.3%	13.2%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	12.2%	0.3%	13.2%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	12.2%	0.3%	13.2%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	12.2%	0.3%	13.2%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	12.0%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	12.0%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	12.0%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	12.0%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	11.9%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:34+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	11.9%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	11.9%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	11.9%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	12.8%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	12.8%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	12.8%	1.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	19.6%	4.3%	12.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	64.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	66.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	59.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗