KPIT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

13%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

EPSNO 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.10u · EPS −45.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	5.4%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	8.7%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.9%	5.5%	1.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	6.3%	4.6%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	1.5%	2.3%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	2.3%	0.7%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	2.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	3.9%	2.8%	0.5%	1.2%	0.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	2.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.3%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.0%	0.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.3%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	64.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	66.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	59.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗