KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

90%

87%

73%

54%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

EPSNO 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.60u · EPS −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	82.3%	28.0%	96.9%	55.4%	75.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	82.3%	28.0%	96.9%	55.4%	75.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	82.3%	28.0%	96.9%	55.4%	75.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	82.3%	28.0%	98.0%	55.4%	75.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	82.3%	28.0%	98.0%	55.4%	75.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	82.3%	28.0%	98.0%	55.4%	75.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.0%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.0%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.0%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.0%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.0%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	83.2%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	98.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	87.1%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	89.9%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	87.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	89.9%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	87.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	89.9%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	87.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	89.9%	28.0%	97.3%	67.0%	87.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00	89.9%	54.0%	98.8%	72.8%	87.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	89.9%	54.0%	98.8%	72.8%	87.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	89.9%	54.0%	98.8%	72.8%	87.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	89.9%	54.0%	98.8%	72.8%	87.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	72.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	69.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	70.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	67.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	63.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗