KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

90%

88%

73%

54%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

EPSNO 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.60u · EPS −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	36.9%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	68.8%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	3.5%	75.1%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	50.7%	45.1%	2.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	59.4%	44.2%	11.7%	—	48.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	61.3%	30.9%	—	47.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	80.5%	71.2%	44.4%	43.6%	59.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	63.6%	—	—	62.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	72.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	69.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	70.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	67.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	63.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗