KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

37%

29%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 26.6¢Risks 26.55u

EPSNO 73.4¢Risks 73.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.45u · EPS −73.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	29.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	29.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	29.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	29.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:34+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	27.9%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	31.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	31.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	31.2%	7.5%	6.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	31.2%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	31.2%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	31.2%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	31.2%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	31.2%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:23+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	38.5%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	40.0%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	40.0%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	25.4%	0.1%	40.0%	8.9%	33.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	40.0%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	40.0%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	40.0%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	40.0%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	40.0%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	47.4%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	47.4%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	55.1%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	55.1%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	55.1%	11.0%	28.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	55.1%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	55.1%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	55.1%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	55.1%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	55.1%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	24.1%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	57.6%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	29.6%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	29.2%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	29.2%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	29.2%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	29.2%	0.1%	50.0%	17.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	52.9%	17.1%	37.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	52.9%	17.1%	37.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	52.9%	17.1%	37.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	52.9%	17.1%	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	53%	72.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	70.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	69.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	67.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗