KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 21 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

26%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 20.8¢Risks 20.80u

EPSNO 79.2¢Risks 79.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +79.20u · EPS −79.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	16.4%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	19.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	5.8%	4.4%	0.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	7.9%	3.6%	0.2%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.6%	7.6%	1.3%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	17.4%	10.8%	2.6%	2.5%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	8.3%	1.9%	—	3.9%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	6.7%	4.9%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	14.6%	—	0.9%	—	1.9%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	6.9%	3.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	41%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	69.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	67.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	63.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗