KPIT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

82%

75%

57%

43%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.5¢Risks 69.45u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.55u · EPS −30.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00	90.4%	34.9%	92.3%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	90.4%	34.9%	92.3%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	90.4%	34.9%	92.3%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	90.4%	34.9%	92.3%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	90.4%	34.9%	92.3%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	86.0%	50.0%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	86.0%	50.0%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	86.0%	42.8%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	86.0%	42.8%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	86.0%	42.8%	96.1%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	86.0%	42.8%	91.2%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	86.0%	42.8%	91.2%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	86.0%	42.8%	91.2%	62.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	91.2%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	91.2%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	91.2%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	91.2%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	91.2%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	87.1%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	81.8%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	81.8%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	81.8%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	81.8%	42.8%	96.1%	56.8%	75.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	73.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	69.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	75%	71.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	65.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	63.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261026-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗