KPIT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

82%

75%

57%

43%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.5¢Risks 69.45u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.55u · EPS −30.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	3.2%	65.2%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	65.7%	42.3%	0.8%	—	47.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	87.6%	58.7%	52.9%	51.5%	62.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	73.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	69.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	75%	71.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	65.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	63.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261026-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗