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KPIT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
90%
ICON
89%
HRES
71%
EPS
39%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 68.6¢Risks 68.60u
VS
EPSNO 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.40u · EPS −31.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS HRES: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 71.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:0076.8%31.4%94.2%50.6%72.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0076.8%31.4%94.4%50.6%72.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0076.8%31.4%94.4%50.6%72.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0076.8%31.4%94.4%50.6%72.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0090.3%31.4%94.4%50.6%89.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0090.3%31.4%94.4%50.6%89.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:0090.3%31.4%94.4%50.6%89.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0090.3%31.4%94.4%50.6%89.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:0090.3%39.0%98.2%71.3%89.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0090.3%39.0%98.2%71.3%89.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0090.3%39.0%98.2%71.3%89.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0090.3%39.0%98.2%71.3%89.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0090.3%39.0%98.2%71.3%89.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%75.3°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single90%72.5°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON89%74.4°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES71%69.2°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend63%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble39%64.6°F3.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗