KPIT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

89%

71%

39%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

EPSNO 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.40u · EPS −31.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	2.2%	58.7%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	59.1%	35.6%	0.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	83.5%	51.5%	45.6%	44.2%	55.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	51.5%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	72.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	89%	74.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	64.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗