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KPIT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
48%
WN2
33%
ICON
26%
EPS
4%
HRES
3%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 25.5¢Risks 25.50u
VS
HRESNO 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.50u · HRES −74.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:02+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:02+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:02+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:02+00:0047.9%4.0%33.3%3.1%26.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0047.9%4.0%33.3%3.1%26.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0047.9%4.0%33.3%3.1%26.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0047.9%4.0%33.3%3.1%26.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single48%71.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%69.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON26%65.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend11%62.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%65.2°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261027-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗