KPIT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

33%

26%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

HRESNO 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.50u · HRES −74.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.4%	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	25.9%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	2.2%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	3.1%	5.2%	7.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	1.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	48%	71.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	69.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	65.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	62.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	65.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	59.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261027-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗