KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

63%

48%

29%

26%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

EPSNO 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.85u · EPS −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:44+00:00	36.0%	64.1%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	36.0%	64.1%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	36.0%	64.1%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:00	52.9%	64.1%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	52.9%	64.1%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	50.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	54.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	54.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	54.8%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	54.8%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	54.8%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	54.8%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	54.8%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	54.8%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00	86.2%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T04:01:14+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	81.3%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	83.9%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	83.9%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	91.3%	61.0%	83.9%	79.4%	72.5%
2026-10-12T07:47:52+00:00	89.7%	61.0%	83.9%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	89.7%	61.0%	83.9%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	89.7%	61.0%	83.9%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	89.7%	61.0%	83.9%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	89.7%	61.0%	83.9%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00	89.7%	61.0%	92.7%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	89.7%	77.0%	92.7%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	89.7%	77.0%	92.7%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	80.2%	77.0%	92.7%	86.7%	88.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	80.2%	76.6%	92.6%	86.7%	88.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	82.5%	51.3%	59.6%	17.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	82.5%	51.3%	59.6%	17.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	82.5%	51.3%	74.1%	17.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	82.5%	51.3%	74.1%	17.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	82.5%	51.3%	74.1%	17.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:13+00:00	75.8%	51.3%	74.1%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	75.8%	51.3%	74.1%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	75.8%	51.3%	74.1%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	75.8%	51.3%	74.1%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	75.8%	51.3%	74.1%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	75.8%	51.3%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	75.8%	42.9%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	75.8%	42.9%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	87.9%	43.0%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	87.9%	43.0%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	87.9%	45.2%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	87.9%	45.2%	70.3%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	87.9%	45.2%	85.7%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	87.9%	45.2%	85.7%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	87.9%	45.2%	85.7%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	87.9%	45.2%	85.7%	40.3%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	85.7%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	85.7%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	85.7%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	85.7%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	80.6%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	78.0%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	59.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	76.9%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	76.9%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	76.9%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	76.9%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	76.9%	45.2%	76.2%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	76.9%	26.4%	62.6%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	76.9%	26.4%	62.6%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	76.9%	26.4%	62.6%	42.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:06+00:00	81.8%	26.4%	62.6%	28.7%	47.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	81.8%	26.5%	62.6%	28.7%	47.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0331
WeatherNext 2	63%	62.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1399
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	48%	61.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2735
National Blend	39%	60.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3709
IFS HRES	29%	59.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5084
IFS Ensemble	26%	58.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5402

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗