KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

63%

48%

29%

26%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

EPSNO 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.85u · EPS −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	28.2%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	99.5%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	31.2%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	59.7%	17.5%	40.9%	—	61.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	81.1%	49.3%	49.3%	—	70.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	97.9%	59.1%	64.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	75.2%	71.2%	59.5%	—	57.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	2.4%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	86.2%	89.5%	61.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	74.0%	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	67.0%	89.5%	35.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	51.8%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	37.3%	72.6%	3.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	47.2%	69.1%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	34.8%	61.5%	4.6%	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	51.0%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	52.1%	46.9%	51.0%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	31.6%	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	51.1%	18.3%	47.8%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.3%	11.8%	0.1%	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	45.4%	28.9%	44.2%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	50.0%	32.5%	38.1%	—	29.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	56.2%	35.4%	34.2%	4.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	52.6%	42.3%	30.2%	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	47.3%	46.0%	29.5%	7.4%	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	40.3%	45.8%	26.5%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	40.0%	58.6%	25.6%	6.8%	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	38.1%	54.5%	23.6%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	30.3%	57.9%	30.3%	4.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	37.0%	51.6%	33.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0331
WeatherNext 2	63%	62.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1399
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	48%	61.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2735
National Blend	39%	60.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3709
IFS HRES	29%	59.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5084
IFS Ensemble	26%	58.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5402

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗