KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

43%

33%

12%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

HRESNO 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.20u · HRES −68.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	81.4%	36.2%	63.7%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	81.4%	36.2%	63.7%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	81.4%	36.2%	79.8%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	81.4%	36.2%	79.8%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	81.4%	36.2%	79.8%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	81.4%	36.2%	79.8%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	79.8%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	79.8%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	79.8%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	79.8%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	43.9%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	57.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	58.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	42.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	42.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	42.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	42.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	42.6%	36.2%	58.5%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	42.6%	11.6%	42.9%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	42.6%	11.6%	42.9%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	42.6%	11.6%	42.9%	17.4%	33.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	54.6%	11.6%	42.9%	9.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	54.6%	11.7%	42.9%	9.0%	33.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	65.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	64.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	60.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	61.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗