KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

43%

33%

12%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

HRESNO 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.20u · HRES −68.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	37.8%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.8%	77.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	54.2%	61.8%	5.8%	—	55.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	75.1%	74.0%	75.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	81.1%	82.6%	52.3%	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	76.4%	94.7%	14.9%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	0.0%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	25.8%	82.2%	0.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	33.4%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	20.8%	59.6%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	38.5%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	19.0%	43.6%	25.1%	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	41.5%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	27.9%	19.0%	32.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	28.2%	6.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	30.3%	24.3%	19.7%	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	43.7%	23.6%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	37.1%	26.4%	13.7%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	46.6%	29.6%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	32.0%	30.0%	19.1%	8.5%	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	22.5%	28.3%	15.2%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	17.4%	30.9%	13.0%	0.0%	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	12.2%	22.8%	10.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	8.9%	18.2%	7.4%	4.6%	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	14.7%	19.1%	7.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	14.6%	20.2%	7.3%	9.5%	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	11.2%	32.5%	8.6%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	31.7%	6.6%	7.7%	5.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	25.4%	9.9%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3036
AIFS Single	55%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2981
WeatherNext 2	43%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1840
ICON	33%	65.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1116
National Blend	30%	64.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0900
IFS Ensemble	12%	60.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0137
IFS HRES	9%	61.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0081

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗