KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

53%

30%

27%

14%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

HRESNO 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.50u · HRES −55.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:52+00:00	61.9%	33.2%	81.7%	81.6%	13.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	61.9%	33.2%	81.7%	81.6%	13.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	61.9%	33.2%	81.7%	81.6%	13.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	61.9%	33.2%	81.7%	81.6%	13.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	61.9%	33.2%	81.7%	81.6%	13.9%
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	65.6%	38.6%	42.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	65.6%	38.6%	42.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	65.6%	38.6%	62.4%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	65.6%	38.6%	62.4%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	65.6%	38.6%	62.4%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:13+00:00	20.4%	38.6%	62.4%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	20.4%	38.6%	62.4%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	20.4%	38.6%	62.4%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	20.4%	38.6%	62.4%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	20.4%	38.6%	62.4%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	20.4%	38.6%	53.2%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	20.4%	29.3%	53.2%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	20.4%	29.3%	53.2%	14.0%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	75.0%	29.5%	53.2%	14.0%	26.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	75.0%	29.5%	53.2%	14.0%	26.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	65.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	65.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	63.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗