KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

53%

30%

27%

14%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

HRESNO 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.50u · HRES −55.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	31.8%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	0.5%	71.8%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	47.2%	54.9%	4.0%	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	69.0%	67.7%	69.6%	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	75.5%	77.2%	44.7%	—	45.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	69.8%	92.2%	10.8%	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.0%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	19.5%	76.2%	0.0%	—	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	26.0%	76.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	15.1%	50.9%	0.0%	—	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	30.2%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	13.4%	34.7%	18.4%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	32.6%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	20.3%	13.1%	24.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	20.4%	3.8%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	21.9%	17.0%	13.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	33.5%	16.3%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	27.3%	18.3%	8.5%	0.0%	11.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	35.7%	20.6%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	22.4%	20.7%	12.1%	4.8%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	14.5%	19.1%	9.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	10.6%	20.8%	7.5%	0.0%	10.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	6.8%	14.3%	6.0%	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	4.6%	10.7%	3.7%	2.2%	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	8.1%	11.1%	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	7.8%	11.5%	3.5%	4.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	65.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	65.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	63.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗