KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.3¢Risks 3.17u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.83u · EPS −46.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:53+00:00	3.3%	0.7%	8.8%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	3.3%	0.7%	8.8%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	3.3%	0.7%	8.8%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	3.3%	0.7%	8.8%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	3.3%	0.7%	8.8%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	3.3%	1.6%	3.3%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	3.3%	1.6%	3.3%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	8.1%	1.6%	3.3%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	8.3%	1.6%	3.4%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00	8.3%	1.6%	3.4%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	8.3%	2.0%	3.4%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	8.3%	2.0%	5.2%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	8.3%	2.0%	5.2%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	8.3%	2.0%	5.2%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	8.3%	2.0%	5.2%	16.0%	1.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	5.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	5.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	5.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	5.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	8.0%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	9.2%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	8.9%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	8.9%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:06+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	8.9%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	8.9%	11.2%	21.3%
2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00	11.8%	2.0%	8.9%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	11.8%	2.0%	8.9%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	11.8%	2.0%	8.9%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	11.8%	2.0%	8.9%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	11.8%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	11.8%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	11.8%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	11.8%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	7.1%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:05+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	3.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	9.0%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	24.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	2.9%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	12.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	2.9%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	12.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	2.9%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	12.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	2.9%	0.3%	5.3%	9.5%	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	12%	73.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0154
IFS HRES	10%	71.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0090
WeatherNext 2	5%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0028
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0011
AIFS Single	3%	71.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0008
National Blend	2%	71.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗