KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

64%

55%

43%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

ICONNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.85u · ICON −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:50+00:00	70.7%	45.5%	76.7%	60.9%	79.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	70.7%	45.5%	76.7%	60.9%	79.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	70.7%	45.5%	80.9%	60.9%	79.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	70.7%	45.5%	80.9%	60.9%	79.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	70.7%	45.5%	80.9%	60.9%	79.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	70.7%	45.5%	80.9%	60.9%	79.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	80.9%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	80.9%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	80.9%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	80.9%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	43.6%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	73.7%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	84.3%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	83.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	20.4%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	20.4%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	20.4%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	20.4%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	20.4%	45.5%	77.5%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	20.4%	14.2%	61.6%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	20.4%	14.2%	61.6%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	20.4%	14.2%	61.6%	57.5%	82.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	83.7%	14.2%	61.6%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	83.7%	14.3%	61.6%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	83.7%	15.6%	61.6%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	83.7%	15.6%	61.6%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	83.7%	15.6%	61.6%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	83.7%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	83.7%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	83.7%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	82.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	80.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	80.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	80.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	86.5%	46.0%	80.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	86.5%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	92.8%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	94.7%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	94.7%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	94.7%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	94.7%	15.6%	88.2%	60.3%	80.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	96.8%	75.8%	93.5%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	96.8%	75.8%	93.5%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	96.8%	75.8%	94.2%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	96.8%	75.8%	94.2%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	96.8%	75.8%	94.2%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	96.8%	75.8%	94.2%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.2%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.2%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.2%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.2%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	95.6%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:48+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	94.9%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	95.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	97.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	97.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	97.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	97.1%	75.8%	96.0%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	97.1%	70.1%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	97.1%	70.1%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	97.1%	70.1%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	97.1%	70.1%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	96.0%	69.7%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	96.0%	69.7%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	96.0%	64.4%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	96.0%	64.4%	95.9%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	96.0%	64.4%	94.3%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	96.0%	64.4%	94.3%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	96.0%	64.4%	94.3%	60.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	94.3%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	94.3%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	94.3%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	94.3%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	94.3%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	94.5%	64.4%	95.0%	54.9%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	75.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	72.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	71.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	69.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗