KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

64%

55%

43%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

ICONNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.85u · ICON −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	84.3%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	72.7%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	2.8%	75.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	74.8%	20.9%	5.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	78.0%	84.4%	22.1%	—	44.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	63.5%	83.5%	9.7%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	67.7%	50.8%	53.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	0.0%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	74.9%	58.3%	31.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	54.3%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	73.1%	64.6%	17.2%	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	68.2%	55.4%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	71.8%	67.0%	47.2%	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	80.4%	69.1%	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	78.2%	73.7%	51.9%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	75.9%	78.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	70.6%	79.5%	55.1%	0.0%	47.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	65.5%	82.4%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	62.9%	74.5%	54.4%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	46.6%	66.4%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	46.5%	69.0%	44.2%	0.0%	38.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	58.4%	59.5%	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	58.7%	64.6%	45.0%	48.8%	43.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	57.7%	70.9%	43.6%	—	37.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	58.0%	73.9%	39.4%	44.6%	39.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	70.0%	74.7%	41.7%	—	43.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	80.9%	84.6%	51.4%	61.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	90.8%	51.5%	—	42.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	75.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	72.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	71.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	69.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗