KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

75%

38%

35%

23%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.60u · ICON −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	52.6%	39.2%	79.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	52.6%	39.2%	79.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	52.6%	39.2%	79.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	50.0%	39.2%	79.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	50.0%	39.2%	79.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	50.0%	39.2%	79.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	50.0%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	50.0%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	50.0%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	50.0%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	50.0%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	69.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	59.3%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	68.1%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	68.1%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	63.8%	31.9%	68.1%	40.4%	68.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00	4.0%	31.9%	68.1%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	4.0%	31.9%	68.1%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	4.0%	31.9%	68.1%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	4.0%	31.9%	68.1%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	4.0%	31.9%	68.1%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	4.0%	31.9%	59.6%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	4.0%	29.9%	59.6%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	4.0%	29.9%	59.6%	47.2%	68.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	55.6%	29.9%	59.6%	47.2%	69.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	55.6%	29.9%	59.6%	47.2%	69.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	86.6%	40.3%	84.1%	35.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	86.6%	40.3%	84.9%	35.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	86.6%	40.3%	84.9%	35.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	86.6%	40.3%	84.9%	35.7%	23.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	87.3%	40.3%	84.9%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	87.3%	40.3%	84.9%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	87.3%	40.3%	84.9%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	87.3%	40.3%	84.9%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	87.3%	40.3%	84.9%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	87.3%	39.4%	82.3%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	87.3%	39.4%	82.3%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	87.3%	39.4%	82.3%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	85.1%	39.4%	82.3%	36.3%	23.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	85.2%	39.4%	82.3%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	85.2%	38.2%	82.3%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	85.2%	38.2%	82.3%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	85.2%	38.2%	82.3%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	85.2%	38.2%	75.4%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	85.2%	38.2%	75.4%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00	85.2%	38.2%	75.4%	36.3%	24.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	83.9%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	85.7%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	85.7%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	85.7%	38.2%	75.4%	35.3%	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	71.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗