KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

75%

38%

35%

23%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.60u · ICON −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	75.6%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	60.9%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	1.2%	63.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	62.4%	12.2%	2.3%	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	65.7%	74.0%	12.8%	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	48.5%	72.4%	4.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	52.4%	35.2%	37.5%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.0%	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	59.9%	41.7%	18.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	37.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	57.0%	47.4%	8.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	50.9%	37.6%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	54.6%	49.1%	29.7%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	64.8%	50.9%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	61.5%	55.8%	33.0%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	58.0%	61.8%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	51.0%	62.2%	34.9%	0.0%	28.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	44.7%	65.5%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	41.3%	54.4%	33.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	25.8%	44.4%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	25.1%	46.5%	23.3%	0.0%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	34.7%	35.9%	19.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	34.2%	40.1%	22.7%	25.6%	21.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	32.5%	46.1%	20.9%	—	16.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	31.9%	48.7%	17.3%	21.0%	17.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	43.1%	48.6%	18.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	55.8%	61.4%	24.5%	33.1%	23.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	71.5%	23.6%	—	17.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	71.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗