KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

81%

65%

46%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.7¢Risks 71.65u

HRESNO 28.3¢Risks 28.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.35u · HRES −28.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:16+00:00	94.4%	39.9%	96.8%	64.2%	91.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	94.4%	39.9%	95.6%	64.2%	91.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	94.4%	39.9%	95.6%	64.2%	91.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	94.4%	39.9%	95.6%	64.2%	91.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	92.2%	39.9%	95.6%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	92.2%	39.9%	95.6%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	92.2%	39.9%	95.6%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	92.2%	39.9%	95.6%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	92.2%	39.9%	95.6%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	92.2%	88.1%	94.7%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	92.2%	88.1%	94.7%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	92.2%	88.1%	94.7%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	96.0%	88.1%	94.7%	64.1%	91.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	95.9%	88.1%	94.6%	64.1%	91.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	96.2%	85.0%	97.5%	45.5%	67.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	96.2%	81.3%	97.5%	45.5%	67.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	96.2%	81.3%	97.5%	45.5%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	96.2%	81.3%	96.9%	45.5%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	96.2%	81.3%	96.9%	45.5%	67.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	96.2%	81.3%	96.9%	45.5%	67.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	94.7%	81.3%	96.9%	46.4%	64.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	74.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	69.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗