KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

81%

65%

46%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.7¢Risks 71.65u

HRESNO 28.3¢Risks 28.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.35u · HRES −28.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	94.2%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	18.4%	95.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	80.6%	85.5%	16.6%	—	55.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	16.1%	70.3%	47.1%	—	60.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	82.1%	73.6%	56.8%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	91.0%	72.6%	58.7%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	7.9%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	87.5%	60.7%	63.1%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	71.2%	67.4%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	85.9%	67.8%	49.1%	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	67.4%	72.9%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	71.8%	71.0%	40.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	59.4%	65.7%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	60.6%	74.5%	51.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	65.6%	65.6%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	58.2%	67.9%	26.8%	—	34.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	61.5%	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	62.9%	65.9%	41.3%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	60.0%	66.4%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	54.6%	70.0%	30.0%	0.3%	30.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	60.7%	70.7%	30.4%	—	37.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	66.9%	77.3%	40.1%	52.5%	40.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	80.0%	34.9%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	74.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	69.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗