KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

61%

60%

35%

19%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.3¢Risks 41.35u

HRESNO 58.7¢Risks 58.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.65u · HRES −58.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:23+00:00	80.8%	51.1%	81.8%	32.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:41+00:00	80.8%	34.1%	56.4%	32.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	80.8%	34.1%	56.4%	32.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	80.8%	34.1%	56.4%	32.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	59.1%	34.1%	56.4%	32.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	59.1%	34.1%	56.3%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	59.1%	35.0%	56.3%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	59.1%	35.0%	56.3%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	59.1%	35.0%	56.3%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	59.1%	35.0%	54.0%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	59.1%	35.0%	54.0%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	59.1%	35.0%	54.0%	32.4%	25.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	54.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	54.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	54.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	54.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	54.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	61.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	61.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	60.5%	35.0%	61.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	59.8%	35.0%	61.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	59.8%	35.0%	61.0%	18.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	59.8%	35.0%	61.0%	18.9%	63.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	77.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	74.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	74.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	71.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	67.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 74°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗