KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

61%

60%

35%

19%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.3¢Risks 41.35u

HRESNO 58.7¢Risks 58.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.65u · HRES −58.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	9.8%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	12.8%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	2.8%	75.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	42.3%	50.0%	2.1%	—	18.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.8%	28.5%	12.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	40.9%	30.3%	16.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	55.6%	27.4%	16.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.4%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	45.8%	16.2%	17.8%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	23.3%	20.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	40.5%	19.6%	9.0%	—	7.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	18.4%	22.9%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	20.9%	20.3%	5.3%	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	11.8%	15.4%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	11.6%	21.0%	7.5%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	13.5%	13.5%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	9.0%	13.9%	1.5%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	9.6%	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	9.4%	10.9%	3.1%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	7.5%	10.2%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	5.1%	11.0%	1.1%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	6.2%	10.2%	1.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	7.5%	13.0%	1.7%	3.5%	1.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	13.5%	1.0%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	77.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	74.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	74.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	71.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	67.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 74°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗