WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
97%
ICON
93%
EPS
65%
HRES
58%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.6¢Risks 77.65u
VS
HRESNO 22.4¢Risks 22.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.35u · HRES −22.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00ICON: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:0097.2%36.1%95.7%59.6%94.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0097.2%36.1%94.8%59.6%94.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0097.2%36.1%94.8%59.6%94.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0097.2%36.1%94.8%59.6%94.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:0098.0%36.1%94.8%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0098.0%36.1%94.8%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0098.0%36.1%94.8%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0098.0%36.1%94.8%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0098.0%36.1%94.8%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0098.0%65.2%97.1%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0098.0%65.2%97.1%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0098.0%65.2%97.1%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0097.0%65.2%97.1%58.2%93.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0097.0%65.2%97.1%58.2%92.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%75.3°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single97%76.8°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON93%76.5°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%69.1°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend63%69.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES58%68.7°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗