KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

97%

93%

65%

58%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.6¢Risks 77.65u

HRESNO 22.4¢Risks 22.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.35u · HRES −22.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	94.8%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	82.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	10.8%	52.7%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	76.5%	54.2%	16.2%	—	50.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	94.3%	16.5%	50.7%	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	92.4%	13.8%	71.7%	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	89.6%	64.1%	53.2%	—	45.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	29.7%	76.9%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	86.7%	79.9%	67.0%	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	68.2%	68.2%	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	79.8%	82.2%	64.6%	—	44.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	77.1%	79.1%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	71.8%	84.5%	50.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	78.3%	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	78.2%	79.0%	57.7%	—	56.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	81.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	74.9%	83.7%	59.2%	—	61.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	83.7%	84.4%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	87.5%	90.1%	62.9%	67.9%	63.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	—	89.8%	0.0%	—	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	76.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	93%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	68.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗