KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

87%

60%

56%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.0¢Risks 75.00u

HRESNO 25.0¢Risks 25.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.00u · HRES −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	40.5%	28.2%	73.3%	19.8%	94.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	40.5%	28.1%	73.3%	19.8%	94.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	40.5%	28.1%	73.3%	19.8%	94.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	40.5%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	94.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	40.5%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	94.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	40.5%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	94.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	83.8%	19.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	83.8%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	87.8%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	95.7%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	95.7%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	95.7%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	95.7%	28.1%	93.3%	53.6%	92.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	95.3%	59.6%	95.1%	51.4%	90.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	95.3%	59.6%	95.1%	51.4%	90.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	95.3%	59.6%	94.0%	51.4%	90.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	95.3%	59.6%	94.0%	51.4%	90.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	95.3%	59.6%	94.0%	51.4%	90.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	95.3%	59.6%	94.0%	51.4%	90.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	94.0%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	94.0%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	94.0%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	94.0%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	95.1%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	94.5%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	94.5%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	94.5%	59.6%	93.1%	55.5%	87.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	87%	75.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	69.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗