KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

87%

60%

56%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.0¢Risks 75.00u

HRESNO 25.0¢Risks 25.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.00u · HRES −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	92.8%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	77.4%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	8.0%	46.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	70.8%	47.2%	12.2%	—	43.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	91.8%	12.4%	43.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	89.3%	10.0%	64.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	85.5%	56.4%	45.2%	—	37.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	23.1%	70.3%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	81.6%	73.5%	59.1%	—	37.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	60.2%	60.2%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	73.1%	75.9%	56.1%	—	36.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	69.8%	72.1%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	63.6%	78.4%	40.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	70.8%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	70.4%	71.3%	48.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	71.8%	73.5%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	66.0%	76.5%	49.0%	—	51.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	76.3%	77.2%	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	81.0%	84.5%	52.2%	57.6%	53.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	83.9%	0.0%	—	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	87%	75.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	69.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗