KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

39%

30%

28%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.5¢Risks 47.45u

EPSNO 52.5¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.55u · EPS −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	28.2%	38.9%	41.4%	14.1%	64.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	28.2%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	64.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	28.2%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	64.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	28.2%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	64.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	12.1%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	12.1%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	12.1%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	12.1%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	12.1%	38.9%	36.2%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	12.1%	6.0%	40.7%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	12.1%	6.0%	40.7%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	12.1%	6.0%	40.7%	14.1%	84.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	16.3%	6.0%	40.7%	7.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	16.4%	6.0%	40.7%	7.3%	84.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00	68.1%	20.0%	59.4%	37.7%	33.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	68.1%	20.0%	59.4%	37.7%	33.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	68.1%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	33.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	68.1%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	33.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	68.1%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	33.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	67.2%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	37.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	67.2%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	37.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	67.2%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	37.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	67.2%	20.0%	67.2%	37.7%	37.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00	67.2%	27.7%	62.6%	30.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	67.2%	27.7%	62.6%	30.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	67.2%	27.7%	62.6%	30.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	67.2%	27.7%	62.6%	30.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	67.2%	27.7%	62.7%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	67.2%	27.7%	62.7%	30.4%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	74.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	39%	71.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	70.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗