KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

39%

30%

27%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

EPSNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.85u · EPS −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	79.8%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	53.9%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	1.8%	21.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	43.7%	21.9%	3.1%	—	19.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	74.6%	2.9%	18.4%	—	5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	68.4%	2.0%	35.1%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	60.3%	26.1%	17.9%	—	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	6.0%	38.7%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	52.5%	41.7%	27.2%	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	27.4%	27.4%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	39.6%	43.0%	23.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	35.1%	37.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	28.2%	44.5%	12.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	34.3%	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	33.0%	33.9%	15.3%	—	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	33.5%	35.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	26.8%	37.8%	14.5%	—	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	36.5%	37.5%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	41.3%	46.7%	14.9%	18.3%	15.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	44.4%	0.0%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	74.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	39%	71.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	70.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗